Pi Network Holders Fear Collapse in 2026: Here’s Why

A new tweet by John Morgan (johnmorganFL) has added attention to the question of the long-term sustainability of Pi Coin (PI) when he quoted an article by Coindoo that states that half of Pi Network owners think that the project will fail by the year 2026. As increasing numbers of people join and major claims of decentralization take place, the sentiment is an indicator that Pi Network is becoming more and more disconnected with its market reality.

Pi Coin Trend

Pi Coin is currently trading at around 0.344 and its market capitalization stands at around 2.75 billion assuming a current supply of tokens in circulation is 8 billion PI coins. This represents a drastic drop as compared to the all time peak of 3.40 in 2025. The trading volume is 28.9 million in 24 hours that shows loss of interest in the market.

The Token Unlock Concern

The aggressive timing of tokens unlocks is one of the most urging issues brought up in the Coindoo article. Recently the network unlocked 163 million PI tokens, which have a valuation of approximately 60 million dollars. Coindcx.com documents that another 160 million tokens (~$67 million) will be emitted in August 2025, and more than 1.27 billion tokens (~$2.5 billion) will be unlocked in the coming year.

Such a deluge of supply unless accompanied by an equal amount of demand is a danger of flooding the market that would push the price even lower. The article cautions that such a lack of balance may reflect historical crypto market crashes due to a comparable structural flaw.

Delays in Rolling out the Mainnet Buttresses Confidence

The switching to Mainnet by Pi Network has been slow and marred with delays. The process of the KYC verification is still a continuous exercise and millions are already verified, though full Mainnet implementation remains unfinished as of mid-2025. Nevertheless, its slow development in terms of encompassing essential aspects (including the Stellar Protocol 23 upgrade) has undermined the confidence of the community. The lack of a fully operational, decentralized system casts the sustainability of the project on a long-term basis in the midst of competitors who are developing more resilient infrastructure.

Parallel FTX Collapse.

The mood of Pi holders resembles the warning history of the FTX collapse in 2022, when trust has disappeared overnight because of its mismanagement and liquidity issues. A study by jfin-swufe.springeropen.com (published January 2025) found that exogenous shocks (e.g., exchange failures or a huge unlock of tokens) cause severe reactions by the crypto market, which leads to long-term value erosion.

The major concern of many analysts is that the huge token unlock timeline of Pi Network might activate an identical loss of trust, particularly when the project still lacks a definite spot on major exchanges and demonstrates tangible Mainnet performance.