Quantum Risk Is Already Pressuring Bitcoin, Says Woo

On-chain analyst Willy Woo has raised a cautionary note for Bitcoin investors, highlighting the quantum risk that could arise from advances in quantum computing. According to Woo, these developments could potentially unlock about 4 million lost Bitcoin. This represents roughly 25–30% of the total supply and could change Bitcoin’s scarcity advantage over gold.

Woo’s warning comes as investors increasingly assess technological risks that could affect Bitcoin’s long-term value. The possibility of private keys being exposed by quantum computing has sparked discussions about the structural risks to the cryptocurrency.

Quantum Computing and Bitcoin Scarcity

Bitcoin’s value is partially derived from its limited supply of 21 million coins. However, if quantum computers are able to access lost coins, previously inaccessible Bitcoin could become spendable. This would increase supply and potentially create a structural discount compared to traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

Woo’s analysis emphasizes that the market is already accounting for this “Q-Day” risk. Prices may reflect concerns that a sudden increase in accessible Bitcoin could dilute scarcity, which has historically been a key driver of its premium over gold.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: Quantum Risk Perspective

According to Woo’s charts, Bitcoin has outperformed gold over a 12-year period, but that trend appears to have slowed. The market may already be pricing in the impact of quantum computing, leading to a plateau in Bitcoin’s advantage over traditional stores of value.

Investors looking to compare Bitcoin and gold must now consider the potential effect of emerging technologies. Woo’s analysis serves as a reminder that innovation can reshape the fundamentals of even the most established digital assets.

Investor Implications of Quantum Risk

If lost Bitcoin becomes accessible, investors may see increased volatility and a structural discount relative to gold. While the risk is largely theoretical today, the discussion is important for long-term planning in crypto portfolios.

Woo’s warning encourages caution but also highlights the resilience of Bitcoin. Even with technological risks on the horizon, Bitcoin continues to offer unique opportunities for diversification and potential growth, provided investors stay informed and adjust their strategies accordingly.