Will the JOLTS Report Trigger the Next Bitcoin Rally? Historical Trends Say Yes

According to the U.S. Labor Department JOLTS report on 29 April, March job openings are the lowest in four years. 7.2 million vacancies are listed, less than the forecast of 7.5 million. Additionally, consumer confidence hit its lowest level in history since January 2021. Typically, stimulus measures, including possible Fed rate cuts, increase market liquidity. The critical question is how this data affects the crypto market and Bitcoin price in May.

Past Data Shows Delayed but Positive Impact on Bitcoin

History tells us that markets often react after some delay. Between January and June 2024, when job openings and consumer sentiment dropped, the Bitcoin price hovered between $53,000 and $66,000. Then, it surged more than 60% in October, crossing $100,000. This suggests that while data from sources like the JOLTS report may seem worrying, investors often wait for future growth signals before jumping in. The market tends to respond once confidence improves. As seen before, “it took more than 105 days for this effect to show in the cryptocurrency market,” highlighting the importance of long-term vision.

Chart 1- Bitcoin/USD, Log Scale, published on TradeView, April 30, 2025. 

Repeating Patterns Could Offer Hints for 2025

This isn’t the first time poor labour and confidence data have come before a crypto surge. In 2023, a similar dip occurred between January and June. During the next four months, Bitcoin fell 18% before climbing again. The JOLTS report then hinted at recovery, and by October, Bitcoin gained 45%. A similar story unfolded in early 2020 after the COVID lockdowns. Despite a short-term fall to $4,000, Bitcoin reached $19,700 by the end of the year. If we follow the same pattern, improved indicators after April 2025 might mean another rally by July, assuming the labour market and consumer sentiment bounce back.

Why the JOLTS Report Matters More Than Investors Think

The JOLTS data does more than list job vacancies; it paints a picture of worker confidence. In March, job openings dropped by 288,000 to 7.192 million. Even February’s data was revised downward. Meanwhile, the quit rate, which economists use to measure worker confidence, slightly rose to 2.1%. Layoffs also fell, and job loss incidence dropped to 1.0%. Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab, Kathy Jones, said, “The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals dropped to 1.0, matching its four-year low.” Many financial experts noted this point after the JOLTS data came out.

JOLTS (Job Openings and Turnover Survey) showed a decline in openings month to month. However, ratio of openings to unemployment is still above 1.0. pic.twitter.com/zdRdM6R59p

— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) April 1, 2025

Is a Fed Rate Cut Coming? Experts Weigh In

Jerome Powell may take action if conditions worsen. “The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals dropped to 1.0, matching its four-year low,” said Kathy Jones. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that “the administration is holding talks with several partners and plans to use tariff revenue to finance the ITA.” A Polymarket forecast shows an 89% chance of rate cuts later in 2025. These moves could ease economic conditions and support asset prices, especially in crypto, where liquidity plays a major role in driving growth.

Pro-Crypto Sentiment and Policy Could Boost Bitcoin

Some experts believe the labour market downturn is pushing the crypto market development. Ted, a financial analyst, said, “Rate cuts and quantitative easing by Q4” could create a “supportive economic environment under a pro-crypto administration.” He mentioned Donald Trump’s positive stance on digital assets and Paul Atkins’ role as SEC Chair. Ted also highlighted the likely approval of XRP ETFs and said that “global regulatory clarity” might further accelerate adoption. If these developments align with improving macro data and a Fed rate cut, the Bitcoin price could aim for $140,000 by October 2025.