China Ends Rubber Probe on India as Canada Faces Strain

China’s Ministry of Commerce has concluded an 11-month Chinese antidumping investigation into halogenated butyl rubber imports, and the results show a sharp divide in how different exporters will move forward. India’s exporters are leaving with no penalties, while Canada and Japan face substantial security deposits that could limit their competitiveness in the Chinese market. The probe, launched in September 2024 after an application from Zhejiang Cenway New Materials, one of China’s largest producers, reviewed import data for 2023 and assessed industrial injury over the 2021-2023 period. The decision was delivered in August 2025, well within the WTO’s 18-month limit for such cases and ahead of the standard 12-month benchmark.

Changing Tariff Structure

For India, the Ministry found the country’s share of China’s imports too small to justify continuing the case, which means no China tariff measures will apply. This is significant in a market where China accounts for roughly 41 percent of global butyl rubber consumption but produces less than 6 percent of the total supply. Canada and Japan will now operate under a very different cost structure. Canadian producers face duties of up to 40.5 percent, with Arlanxeo Canada assigned a 26.2 percent rate. Japanese exporters will pay between 13.1 and 30.1 percent. These numbers are high enough to reshape sourcing decisions in sectors that depend heavily on the product. Since the tire industry alone consumes about 60 percent of global halogenated butyl rubber, the higher costs will likely pass through to manufacturers and potentially to consumers.

The ruling also fits into a broader global trade environment defined by escalating reciprocal measures. On the same day, China announced a 75.8 percent anti-dumping duty on Canadian canola. This coincided with recent Canadian tariff hikes on Chinese steel. These developments suggest trade remedies are not only defensive tools for domestic industries. They are also active levers in bilateral trade relations.

What is Rubber Trade about?

Halogenated butyl rubber itself is a niche but vital synthetic polymer. It is primarily used for airtight layers in tubeless tires but also found in pharmaceutical stoppers, adhesives, and sealing materials. China’s domestic capacity is about 395,000 tons annually. Zhejiang Cenway and Panjin Heyun together produce more than half of that. 

For India, the absence of a China tariff on this material secures an advantage to expand its presence in the Chinese market. This could allow India to capture customers from Canadian and Japanese suppliers now facing penalties. For Canada and Japan, the costs tied to the ruling will likely reduce export volumes, trigger supply chain realignments, and push some buyers toward alternative suppliers. From an industry perspective, the case underscores how targeted Chinese anti-dumping measures can influence far more than the trade in one commodity. They can alter procurement strategies, investment flows, and the balance of global trade in specialized industrial materials.